The Pivot will be at 6058
R1 6090 S1 6037
R2 6111 S2 6005
R3 6165 S3 5952
Bank Nifty Futures
The Pivot will be at 10195
R1 10285 S1 10065
R2 10420 S2 9970
R3 10640 S3 9750
pax1, markets, nse, bse, dija, dow, S&P,gold, rupee, pmi, tata, reliance,
Nifty future levels
The Pivot will be at 6058 R1 6090 S1 6037 R2 6111 S2 6005 R3 6165 S3 5952 Bank Nifty Futures The Pivot will be at 10195 R1 10285 S1 10065 R2 10420 S2 9970 R3 10640 S3 9750 European stock markets declined for a second day on Thursday after data showed the Chinese manufacturing sector contracted more than expected in January and the U.S. Federal Reserve further tapered its asset purchases. It has somewhat recovered except for the FTSE which is still in red.
A Spanish report showed the country’s economic recovery picked up speed in the fourth quarter, with gross domestic product rising 0.3%. For the full year, the Spanish economy contracted 1.2%. In Germany, labor-market figures showed unemployment fell by 28,000 in January, better than the 5,000 expected. The index of pending home sales fell 8.7% last month to 92.4, the lowest reading since October 2011, with particularly poor weather and rapidly rising home prices likely behind the plunge, according to NAR. The gauge of pending home sales dropped in December to the lowest level in more than two years, signaling that upcoming activity may slow down, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. All four U.S. regions saw pending home sales fall in December, with the gauge down 10.3% in the Northeast, 9.8% in the West, 8.8% in the South and 6.8% in the Midwest. Pending sales typically close within two months. An index reading of 100 equals 2001's average contract activity level.
The DOW opened with a 70 plus point opening recouping some of last night losses, as did S&P , good results from Face book ,Time Warner and some other companies did take it up, though Exxon dissappointed .The main driver was the GDP figure of 3.2 percent on annual basis, which says another quarter of good performance by the economy, and consumer spending has picked up to 3.3 percent.This is a good sign for any economy.
But the Index is now down from the days high as the jobless claims have risen as well the pending home sales have dropped by 8.7 percent and not just in one region.This data will be analysed in detail, in a later post.This does not sound too good for the housing market which is the bedrock of the american economy.It had a resultant effect on the mortgage interest which fell today.Some good news with the bad news. Dollar has risen against most currency ..the Argentinian peso, Turkish lira and the rand took a breather.But Hungarian florint hit a two year low.Another sign of a submerging currency?Dollax is now hovering at 81 level which shows the currency is strengthening. More updates later in the evening , the dow is on the road to recovery and the excitement of the fed policy and wild swings in results is slwoing down. It should recover positively as the evening goes by. The market did finally recovered in the last 45 minutes .I expected a closing of 6070 and it did finally a closing of 73 , and the way it di d it was showing that it has got life finally and the power to go up. The Journey upward has only just begun and will not be an easy one. But it is going up , it will be a slow ride which will gather momentum once it reaches 6220 range.When it crosses the 250 to 260 it will gather speed. We have less than 18 days of trading in the coming month. But it will come with more drama. So be on the look out for it.
The Bank nifty, it has been beaten down hard, many a person has lost money on the Index, and many more waiting to loose too..one bank after one has come in with bad news and more bad news. But this is the quarter when things will certainly improve for the better.The way some of the private banks regained in the last hour shows that they will be the main drivers for the ride up. The forgiven PSU banks will come in later to help out. Now the stock known as SBI, many a trader has been burnt trading this stock.Which has mind of its own and which one cannot fanthom.But this is now at a level which is the bottom. It can only go up. Time to move in for long term investment.Buy some, leave it to rise and forget about it till it reaches the 2k level....do not trade with it or try analyse or waste your time studying it. This stock will see the old glory, sooner than later. The IT pack has been silent, but it should now move on with it's journey to their respective goals.This quarter is the quarter where they have to work to come out with excellent year end results, which will have an impact on the stock value for the next year.US.GDP figures have come out yet another another excellent result, which means the spend on IT and related services will grow exponentially. The Indian companies are geared to meet this challenge.won't be surprised if most of them beat the CII target for the year.Europe too is growing , coming out of their problems and the recovery there will be faster, the IT spend will be increasing sooner than later.With money SMART pouring in from the USA things will be improve at a fast pace. Invest wisely watch the trend indicators, make the most of your capital, I will come out with the calls to buy and how one can trade safely .....have a good February short month but an exciting one.A sector wise analysis will be given later in the evening....as usual your thoughts and opinions are always welcome. The Indian market has the penchant for sniffing bad news any where and following it. Europe opens and tracks it fall too...the reason for doing so, not an idea. The European markets may be down but then it will reverse once the news etc . are clear to them...but the Indians would have sniffed some more bad news else where.The fundamentals of the market , that is its strength, potential, and the resilience are discounted.Only bad news counts.Only a person with a strong heart and deep pockets can survive in these markets. The retailer with limited capital is at a strong risk to be wiped out when caught on the wrong side.Safer to stay positional following trend lines and avoid day trading.If you have open positions then it is better to stop trading , move into a casino and gamble , most give free food and drinks..You might have better luck there.January has always been a positive month but this January is one which many would like to forget about in a hurry.
We need to see spot nifty break 6060 comprehensively and the Rupee in between 62.50 and 62.60 to see the tide turn and the recovery process begin.Then the closing can be around 6100 on spot.China is closed till Tuesday next week and Singapore market closed tomorrow.The same applies to the Malaysian market too.
The Hang Seng closed early for the start of the Chinese new year holidays. It is down 5 percent for the month of January. A steep fall for the month and a costly send off for the Year of the Snake.Hope the year of the horse harbors good tidings.The exchange is closed till Tuesday next week.
Wait and watch , do not enter into any buying position.We need to see if 6040 level as 6050 in Nifty is taken out.Rupee should go over 62.50 for the markets to make a turn. If 6040 is taken out we may see 6030 to 6024 level however if rupee does a strong recovery then it will make the rate sensitives go up.The expiry can happen around 6100 level or slightly below it.
The Hang Seng index is now resting presumably for Lunch break and we should see it returning soon in to two digit levels. If this happens we should see some recovery in our stocks too.We are in a better position in comparison to other submerging economy's hence we can safely assume this is the worst we can see. Most critical levels of the day for NIFTY spot.
Most critical levels of the day for Bank Nifty spot.
The Rupee is the key indicator which needs constant watching. Till now it has not spent much time in 63 Rupee zone, however given the circumstances it will be under pressure. Rupee opened at 62.84 which is a good sign.
It seems the emerging markets may now be refereed to as the submerging markets, mismanagement of the economy, structural problems, over dependence on hot money and other issues have brought about the woes they are now facing.The one country which stands tall over these issues are Korea , and to some extent Philippines who have gone through reforms.India too could have been one among them but thanks to the bikering politics, wrong policy and paralysis to a large extent has brought about this situation which we are in.
The only silver lining in the cloud is that we have a strong reserve, and cad which is well contained. The fiscal deficit is one issue which is worrying a lot of people and if it is on the path to be contained this year too then we can breath a sigh of relief. The market today is going to be very volatile , and with expiry today it makes it even more interesting. More bad news yet again from China .The manufacturing PMI slips to 49.5 confirmation of a January contraction in China’s manufacturing sector came this morning from HSBC.The Nikkei is 3.3 percent down, the Hang Seng is 1.5 percent , Singapore straits is 1.1. percent and Shanghai is 0.5 percent down.The markets are behaving, as if it is the end of the world and continuously going down .
Many In India say that the next round of tapering comes as a surprise, well it may be to us.....but for the Americans it is not.The fed to change its course or stop completely, needs very strong reasons and that is missing. Turmoil due to EM's is not actually a problem for them,End of tapering brings money back to the US. As some one mentioned Yellen would have an influence etc. it does not work that way.The main worry was the de linking of the interest rate increase from the labor market.In any case we do not have a cause for worry at the moment, but come March it will be revisited and then we may see forward guidance being changed, provided the US economy continues to do well and grows. The Dow, S&P close at a crucial level, and they are down nearly 4 percent over the month.Is this the correction or a pull back?Tomorrow we will have the answer to that question.
Here is wishing that the Chinese HSBC PMI DATA final comes out tomorrow, anything better than 49.6 is positive........7.15 am in the morning, this well set the trend....
The feds tapering 10 billion has been factored in , what is important is that they have not touched the interest rates nor indicated that they will do so any time soon. This is a positive news.The DIJA is down at the moment, more due to results not being good than the taper which every one expected.We now need to and see where the market closes today.It will go down further then reverse ......
Here is wishing every one a happy Chinese new year.It ushers in the the year of the horse and says good bye to the snake. Chinese and Hongkong markets are closed till Tuesday and Singapore is closed tomorrow.Given below are the prediction for business and the year in general...
It will be a fast year full of conflicts according to some astrologers, who see wood as providing fuel for the energetic horse sign. The later part of the year is “yin fire”, increasing the potential for heated clashes even more. “The upcoming Horse year is also a 'yang wood' year, when people will stick more to their principles and stand firm. So it is hard to negotiate or compromise as there are more tendencies for people to fight for their ideals.” Well we have an election coming up, and the mango party coming up with their item number too. As for the business front the prediction goes as such.If you have a business involving wood or fire you will do well. This includes lumber companies, agriculture and media companies. Property companies won’t do as well and as the horse is a galloper, the potential is for the prices to gallop downwards over the first six months. However, supported by the fire element in the latter half of the year they may gallop back up, Metals and waters will do badly: this will affect metal mining and precious metals as well as fishing. Financial business also have the potential to be unstable. We could have predicted that one though. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted unanimously to cut its bond-buying program on Feb. 1 by another $10 billion a month to $65 billion. The bank said "growth in economic activity" has picked up and that it continues to see "improvement" in the labor market. The Fed also signaled as expected that it's likely to continue to steadily reduce its purchases in the coming months. The Fed did not change its targets for inflation, short-term interest rates or its desired unemployment rate. Economists predict the Fed will wind down its bond-buying program by the end of the year. As recently as December the bank had been buying $85 billion in bonds each month. The purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities are meant to keep U.S. interest rate low to stimulate the economy
In September 1992, the Bank of England, which was then under the direct control of the U.K. government, hiked its official interest rate from 10% to 12% and then to 15% in a single, chaotic day as it attempted to maintain the British pound’s membership in the exchange rate mechanism, or ERM. For the U.K., the ERM effectively amounted to a pledge to keep its currency at an exchange rate of more than 2.7 deutsche marks to the pound.
Then-U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont at a news conference on Black Wednesday, Sept. 16, 1992. That’s a young David Cameron, a Lamont aide and the current U.K. prime minister, looking on in the background. Traders saw the hikes for the desperate measures they were, unjustified by Britain’s underlying economic fundamentals. They continued to sell the pound, eventually forcing the government to give up the fight and return the official interest rate to 10%. The pound fell sharply and Britain dropped out of the ERM, leaving Prime Minister John Major’s government thoroughly humiliated. Soros, who had placed huge bets against the pound, was said to have made around $1 billion in the episode and became forever known as the man “who broke the Bank of England .” Turkey’s central bank late Tuesday hiked its one-week repo rate to 10% from 4.5%, boosted its overnight lending rate to 12% from 7.75% and lifted its overnight borrowing rate to 8% from 3.5%. The lira, which had plunged more than 11% versus the dollar since the beginning of January, quickly rallied. But gains were fleeting . The lira is back under pressure, with the dollar buying 2.2394 lira USD, up from 2.1755 in the aftermath of the rate hike. Now what does Turkey do next to save its face? Trying to save the currency without changing the fundamentals will result in such situations, And you cannot change them over night. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has doubled the sub-limit for investment in government securities, or G-Secs, to $10 billion by long-term investors like sovereign wealth funds and foreign central banks, with a view to attract more funds. Meanwhile, Sebi said in a circular, "Government of India has now decided to enhance this sub-limit from $5 billion to $10 billion within the overall government debt limit of $30 billion."
Foreign institutional investors - qualified foreign investors (QFIs) and long-term investors - registered with market watchdog Sebi are allowed to purchase government securities and non-convertible debentures (NCDs) or bonds issued by Indian companies within the limit of $30 billion. FPIs bring together all the three investment categories - FIIs, their sub-accounts and QFIs. Under the new norms, FPIs have been divided into three categories as per their risk profile and the know-your-client (KYC) requirements and other registration procedures would be much simpler for FPIs compared to current practices. Besides, the new class would be given a permanent registration, as against the current practice of granting approvals for one year or five years to the overseas entities seeking to invest in Indian markets. The country's largest two-wheeler maker Hero MotoCorp on Wednesday unveiled a 150cc diesel concept scooter and four other models, including a hybrid scooter.Barring the 150cc diesel model 'RNT', the company plans to launch all other four models in the next financial year.
"Barring RNT, which is a concept, all four models, including the hybrid scooter would be launched during the next fiscal," Hero MotoCorp Managing Director and CEO Pawan Munjal told reporters. "RNT, Leap (hybrid scooter) and 250 cc bike HXR250R are completely new products, while Dash (110cc scooter) and Xtreme Sports (150cc bike) models are based on existing platforms, Munjal added. Barring the 150cc diesel model 'RNT', the company plans to launch all other four models in the next financial year."Barring RNT, which is a concept, all four models, including the hybrid scooter would be launched during the next fiscal," Hero MotoCorp Managing Director and CEO Pawan Munjal told reporters. "RNT, Leap (hybrid scooter) and 250 cc bike HXR250R are completely new products, while Dash (110cc scooter) and Xtreme Sports (150cc bike) models are based on existing platforms, Munjal added. Speaking on the hybrid Leap - with both petrol as well electric engine - Munjal said the company would first launch the vehicle in western markets and then bring it to India."The hybrid scooter will have a range of around 340 km on one single charge and a tank full...the scooter's range is better than any electric vehicle," Munjal said. Hero MotoCorp Senior Vice President (Marketing and Sales) Anil Dua said the company has already completed the launch of 11 models of the 15 models it had showcased in October 2013. Stephen L. Jen, a former economist for the International Monetary Fund who now manages a hedge fund based in London, came up with this statement. "Better to keep it simple, and steer clear of currencies with four letters: the Mexican peso, the South African rand, the Brazilian real and, of course, the Turkish lira. He however does include India in the Fragile five names he has come up with. There were days when lenders handed out mortgages without requiring documentation and down payments. Now these lenders of subprime call the loans ’nonprime’ and require as much as 30 percent down payment to safeguard their investment. And they see a big opportunity for growth as tougher federal lending standards shut out millions of Americans with poor credit from the mortgage market. There needs to be a solution for people who don’t fit the bill for them nonprime lending is the only option.
The current level of subprime lending is small compared with the flood that helped spur the housing boom. The loans are made to the riskiest borrowers, with low credit scores, high levels of debt and inconsistent income.About $3 billion of subprime mortgages were made in the first nine months of 2013, matching the year-earlier period, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade journal. In 2005, subprime loans reached $625 billion. |