This will be my last post before this site is closed. I hope that I have been of use to some people if not all....and it has been a pleasure knowing you all.God Bless and trade safe.
It has been some months of terrific ride , and the pleasure derived in writing this blog has been immense. However as always, good things do not last for ever.
This will be my last post before this site is closed. I hope that I have been of use to some people if not all....and it has been a pleasure knowing you all.God Bless and trade safe.
A probable sell off could happen in case the index goes below 6679 on good volume activity. Once it falls further below 6650, the profit taking led sell off might well morph into a strong down day. However, so long as the level of 6650 is held, the bulls can again push it up higher.
hope of its regaining its lost strength is its ability to stay above 12668—if it does not fall below this level, it can always reclaim bullish momentum. However, any sustained campaign below 12668 would invite the bears to sell again.
Foreign investors have made net inflows of nearly Rs. 80,000 crore in the Indian stocks in the ongoing fiscal year, while they have pulled out money from the debt market.
However, net inflows are lower than Rs. 1,40,033 crore made by FIIs in the past fiscal year.During the current fiscal year (FY14), FIIs have pumped in net amount of Rs. 79,709 crore in the equity market, according to data available with market regulator Sebi.
This was the fifth consecutive fiscal year inflows by foreign investors after pulling out a net amount of Rs. 47,706 crore from the share market in 2008-09.
Despite their unpredictable 'hot money' investment, these overseas entities have been amongst the most important drivers of Indian stock markets.
The huge inflows came despite the number of FIIs registered in India dipping to 1,710 in this fiscal year from 1,757 at the end of March 31, 2012. However, FIIs have kept away from the debt market and pulled out net sum of over Rs. 28,000 crore during the fiscal year in the segment due to weakness in the Indian currency.In the 2012-13, overseas investors had pumped in nearly Rs. 28,334 crore in debt securities.
Since opening up of Indian markets for financial institutional investors in 1992, the investors have made a cumulative net investment of Rs. 7.08 lakh crore in shares and withdrawn Rs. 1.4 lakh crore from the debt segment.
According to market analysts, foreign investors invested hugely in the domestic equities markets in 2013-14 because Indian equity markets gave one of the best returns among the emerging countries.
FIIs began the financial year on a positive note and infused more than Rs. 26,000 crore in the first two months of the current fiscal year on the back of various reforms initiated by the government.
However, overseas investors became net sellers of equities between June and August as the Federal Reserve announced that it would taper its quantitative easing strategy.
FIIs once again flocked towards Indian stocks and bought bagful of stocks in September as RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan announced a slew of measures to boost the weakening rupee and revive economic growth. After that the inflows continued till the fiscal year-end.
The momentum of fund inflow in stocks picked up in the month of March on hopes that BJP-led government will come in power in general elections starting next month.
According to market experts, FIIs preferred sectors like software, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology; financial services and food, beverages and tobacco among others.
As per Sebi data, total number of registered FIIs dropped to 1,710 as on March 28 from 1,757 last fiscal year.
Also, the number of registered sub-accounts pegged at 6,344 against 6,335 in 2012-13. The sub-accounts include foreign firms, individuals and institutions on whose behalf FIIs make those investments.
Do these people know something which we do not? They way they are offloading their share holdings, it would mean hat they do not trust their luck?top executives of Larsen and Toubro (L&T) are on selling spree of their shares in the company, with Executive Chairman A M Naik leading the pack.
Naik has sold his 5.67 lakh shares in the company worth about Rs.71.99 crore in last 20 days, company's filings to the BSE in March showed.
Two other top officials, CEO K Venkataramanan and whole time director Shailendra N Roy, have also offloaded part of their shares in the same period.
Chairman Naik has offloaded 0.058 per cent, out of 0.266 per cent he had in the company, in as many as 6 transactions since March 10, amounting to Rs. 71,98,59,585.
Post these transactions, he now holds 0.205 per cent stake or 19,00,000 shares in the company, the filings showed.
Naik's last share sale happened on March 27, when he sold 1,17,500 company shares worth Rs. 15,15,42,375. This was intimated to the stock exchanges today by L&T.
Company CEO K Venkataramanan had sold 10,000 shares, out of 8,52,873 shares he holds in L&T, for about Rs. 1.26 crore on March 14. He now has 8,42,873 shares of the company, amounting to 0.091 per cent stake.
Besides, Shailendra N Roy, a whole time director of the company, has offloaded his 3,500 shares worth about Rs. 44.70 lakh in three tranches on March 19, 26 and 27. He now holds 0.0058 per cent stake or 54,050 shares of the company.
L&T is one such company that does not have a promoter.
Its largest shareholder of L&T is Life Insurance Corporation of India, which held 17.06 per cent stake as on December, 2013.
L&T Employees Welfare Foundation, with 11.80 per cent stake, and Government of India through the Administrator of the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (8.20 per cent stake) are its second and third largest shareholders respectively.
None of the company executives, including chairman Naik, holds more than 1 per cent stake in the company.
L&T shares were trading at Rs. 1,271 a piece on the BSE at 1515 hours, down 1.16 per cent from the previous close.
Reliance Industries has agreed to temporarily supply gas to India's fertiliser plants at current prices, although the two sides have failed to sign new deals, the top official in the Fertiliser Ministry said.
Energy group Reliance Industries' five-year gas supply agreements with sectors including fertiliser makers and power producers expire at midnight, requiring buyers to sign new contracts for supplies from its D6 block in the Krishna Godavari basin.
"Reliance will continue to supply gas at $4.20 (per million British thermal units). The Fertiliser Association of India (FAI) and Reliance will sit together and finalise the (next contracts) agreements as early as possible," Fertiliser Secretary Shaktikanta Das told reporters on Monday.
The Cabinet last year approved a formula that linked prices of locally produced gas with global benchmarks, which would have nearly doubled gas prices from current levels from Tuesday.
The Election Commission asked the government to defer the price increase until the completion of the five-week general election in the middle of May.
"We will pay the marketing margins and gas prices from the date as may be notified by the government," Satish Chander, director general of FAI, said.He said he hoped the deadlock over the contracts would end soon.
Nifty future levels
The Pivot will be at 6738
R1 6768 S1 6709
R2 6796 S2 6789
R3 6855 S3 6620
Bank Nifty Futures
The Pivot will be at 12842
R1 12933 S1 12733
R2 13041 S2 12642
R3 13241 S3 12442
Nifty closed up 8.30 points (0.12%) at 6704.20 while Nifty Future closed at 6739.65, premium of 35.45 points.
Buy Nifty Future above 6744 - 6765 - 6790 - 6820 SL - 6724
Sell Nifty Future below 6723 - 6705 - 6680 - 6655 SL - 6742
Buy Nifty 6700CE above 136 for targets of 151, 166 SL - 129
Buy Nifty 6600PE above 97 for targets of 110, 125 SL - 89
Bank Nifty Outlook
Bank Nifty closed down 12.65 points (0.10%) at 12742.05 while Future closed at 12824.75, premium of 82.70 points.
Buy Bank Nifty Future above 12849 - 12925 - 13035 - 13120 SL - 12810
Sell Bank Nifty Future below 12806 - 12745 - 12650 - 12540 SL - 12848
CAPITAL MARKETS DATA - FII and DII
Category Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 4248.84 3305.98 942.86
DII 1358.08 1969.30 -611.22
FII FNO DATA
INDEX FUTURES -177.13
INDEX OPTIONS -11.24
STOCK FUTURES 79.65
STOCK OPTIONS -61.03
VIX FUTURES 75.75
Erasing earlier gains, U.K.’s FTSE 100 index ended Monday in negative territory, with GlaxoSmithKline PLC dropping after disappointing test results and the broader market declining in line with other major European indexes.The London benchmark lost 0.3% to close at 6,598.37, extending its quarterly loss to 2.2%, the first drop since the three-month period ending in June last .
More broadly, equities in Europe started to move lower just ahead of the close amid political jitters in France, as Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault resigned after his Socialist Party suffered major losses in local elections over the weekend.The Bank of England said the number of loan approvals for house purchases was a weaker-than-expected 70,309 in February, compared with an average of 69,563 over the previous six months.
The Nifty did go down today but the momentum f the FII juggernaut carried it back across 6700 mark to close slightly high. This says a lot for the power and the muscle used by the FII's to regain the upper hand and the bulls are enjoying the their time in fame and of course making money as days go by.
Tomorrow is RBI policy day, rate cut ? Not an option, why rock the boat when things are going good. Rate increase, would not put past Raghu Ram to try this trick , especially when the market can absorb an increase at this point in time .It would also deal a big blow for inflation which will and is creeping back. But generally the market says no change, and it has already factored this in.Now how would the market behave if an increase was declared?I do not think it will change things much the FII's for all you know will pump in more money.
Where do we see this market , the Chinese data if it comes out lower then we shall see a fall in metals. The US data if it comes out not good, would not make much of an effect on our markets. The key is how far the RBI is going to let the rupee go. Will it keep buying to impede its rise or the best option to control it would be to raise the interest rate. Now this would sound bizarre but it could work.
The FII's are happy to see dips of 40 to 60 points they will turn it into an opportunity to buy and then take the index up by 100 to 120 points.The shorter's get killed at regular intervals and short covering takes the index up higher.Will we see 7000 in the next ten days, well we need to cross Aprl 7th, and see if the locals bulls turn into bears by that time.At the moment, they give all their support to the FII's but time will come when they need to see where this election is heading to, and getting pragmatic, and not get carried away by the euphoria.This will be just before the voting starts, and when the market will become very volatile.
Hence as the saying goes make hay when the sunshine's, and make the best for the rainy day.....and do not get into any long term relationship with any stock or Index. You can always get them cheaper in the long run.
A gauge of Chicago-area businesses tumbled in March, hitting the lowest level since August, led by drops for new orders and employment, according to data released Monday. The Chicago purchasing-managers index fell to 55.9 in March, down 3.9 points from February. Economists had expected a March index reading of 60. Results over 50 indicate an expansion from the prior month
US stocks opened higher on Monday, putting the S&P 500 on track for a second straight advance, speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has its soothing effect.The Dow Jones industrial average was up 104.55 points, or 0.64 per cent, at 16,427.61.The Standard & Poor's 500 was up 12.22 points, or 0.66 per cent, at 1,869.84.The Nasdaq Composite was up 37.38 points, or 0.90 per cent, at 4,193.14.
Euro stocks trimmed gains on Monday while government bond yields and the euro rose after weak euro zone inflation data cemented expectations the European Central Bank will ease policy but also prompted investors to take profit on these bets.
Inflation across the 18-nation bloc fell to 0.5 per cent in March, according to preliminary estimates. That is the lowest level in over four years and likely to support expectations the ECB could act to counter the deflationary threat as early as this week when it holds its next policy meeting.But the question looming large is these methods were tried earlier and did not work.
But the low number was not a major shock. So after stocks briefly popped higher and the euro slipped in anticipation the ECB will soon act, traders shifted their focus to the looming end of the first quarter and reduced their positions.
As the second quarter looms, investors are drawing comfort from expectations of further stimulus from the ECB and Chinese authorities, which they hope will mitigate the gradual withdrawal of stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
the FTSE EuroFirst 300 index of leading shares was up 0.1 per cent at 1,333 points.Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.2 per cent at 6,627 points.Germany's DAX was down 0.1 per cent at 9,574 points, while France's CAC 40 was down a similar amount at 4,405 points.During mid morning trade.
The euro rose a quarter of one percent to $1.3784, drifting up from Friday's one-month low. On Saturday, Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann said the euro zone was not in a deflationary cycle and the ECB should not over-react to low inflation data.
"The weaker CPI reading means that the ECB doves now have an argument in favour of moving sooner rather than later. Even if the ECB does not act this week, the euro should be under pressure from stronger US data," BNP Paribas strategists said.
German benchmark 10-year yields rose to 1.59 per cent, while in peripheral euro zone bond markets Spanish 10-year yields were steady on the day at 3.24 per cent, near Friday's eight-year low of 3.2 per cent.
Even after six consecutive quarters of decline, the fall in Spanish yields accelerated in the first quarter. The plunge of around 90 basis points in the first three months of the year is the biggest quarterly fall since the end of 1996.
Shares in non-banking finance companies which have applied for bank licenses fall on media reports the Election Commission would not be holding a meeting on Monday regarding the issuance of new licenses, citing unnamed officials.
The Reserve Bank of India has sought the Election Commission's approval to announce new bank licenses ahead of the polls due to conclude by May and media reports had said the commission could meet on Monday.
A spokesman for the commission reiterated no decision on bank licenses had been made.
Shares in LIC Housing Finance fell 1.7 per cent, L&T Finance Holdings was down 1.46 per cent and IDFC Ltd lost 3.66 per cent.
Tata Housing has bought seven acres of land in Mumbai for Rs. 214 crore from KEC International for development of a premium housing project.Tata Housing signed an agreement with KEC International on Saturday to buy 7.3 acres of land parcel in Thane, according to sources.
Tata Housing, a real estate arm of Tata group, will build premium homes on the land and expects Rs. 1,300 crore revenue from the project, they added.
KEC International is global infrastructure engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) major. It has presence in the verticals of power transmission, power systems, cables, railways, telecom and water.
Tata Housing generally enters into a joint venture with land owners. However, the company seems to have changed the strategy and has now started buying land outright.
Tata Housing had recently bought a 20 acre land parcel in north Bangalore for a consideration of around Rs. 120 crore from Alstom and a one acre land parcel at Hailey road in Delhi.
Tata Housing is utilizing the slow down in the real estate market as an opportunity to buy quality land parcels at marquee locations to increase its presence in the premium and super premium segments across major markets in the country.
Tata Steel has sold its 25-acre Borivali land parcel for Rs. 1,155 crore to Oberoi Realty. In 2012, Lodha Group had acquired a 17-acre land parcel at Lower Parel from DLF for Rs. 2,725 crore.
Tata Housing is a subsidiary of Tata Sons Ltd, which holds 99.86 per cent stake in the realty firm.
The company is currently developing 70 million sq ft of area and an additional 19 million sq ft is in the pipeline. It has ventured into Maldives market and is actively exploring other markets including Sri Lanka and other South Asian countries.
Petrol price was today reduced by 75 paise paise per litre, while that of diesel was kept unchanged.The cut, effective midnight, excludes local sales tax or VAT. The actual increase will be higher and will vary from city to city.
Fuel prices were last revised on February 28, when petrol was made costlier by 60 paise a litre and diesel by 50 paise per litre.
With this cut, the price of petrol has been revised three times so far this year.
While petrol prices are market determined, the price of diesel is regulated by the government, which allows minor revisions each month.
The rupee, which plays an important role in determining fuel prices, breached the 60-per-dollar mark for the first time in eight months last Friday.
Finance Minister indicated today that government may further ease restrictions on gold imports after monetary policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on April 1, as the current account deficit has moderated to about $35 billion.
"Some relaxations were made a few days ago when more banks were allowed to import gold. We could consider some more relaxations in consultation with RBI," he said while releasing the year-end report on economy.
"Let the RBI's monetary policy be announced tomorrow and then we will consider whether some relaxation can be done," he said.
Emphasising that the economy today is far more stable and far stronger than what it was 20 months ago, he said the current account deficit is expected to come down about $35 billion during the current fiscal year.
It was at a record high of $88.2 billion, or 4.8 per cent of GDP, as gold imports soared 845 tonnes last fiscal year.
In order to restrict current account deficit, the government took measures to curb gold import. The government raised import duty on the precious metal three times taking it to 10 per cent and also made it mandatory to export 20 per cent of the total gold imported.
Following this gold imports came down to 19 tonnes in November from a peak of 162 tonnes in May. The current account deficit, too, was brought down to 3.1 per cent in April-September of the ongoing fiscal year, from 4.5 per cent in the same period last year.
Gold imports have fallen substantially after the restrictions. Gold and silver imports declined 71.4 per cent to $1.63 billion in February.
Imports of gold and silver in February 2013 stood at $5.24 billion. In January this year, they were $1.72 billion.
Earlier this month, the RBI allowed more banks, including Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, to import gold under the 80:20 scheme.
Under the 80:20 scheme, which was introduced on August 14, nominated agencies could import gold on condition that 20 per cent of the shipment would be exported and the remainder kept for domestic use. Permission for subsequent imports would be given on fulfilment of the export obligation.
So far, only six banks and three financial institutions were allowed to import gold under the 80:20 scheme. On a consignment basis, 21 banks, as permitted by the RBI, can import gold and silver.
India's infrastructure sector output rose 4.5 percent year-on-year in February, mainly driven by higher electricity, oil refining and steel production, government data showed on Monday.
The sector grew 1.6 percent year-on-year in January.In the first 11 months of the current fiscal year, the output grew an annual 2.6 percent, the data showed.
The infrastructure sector, which comprises coal, crude oil, oil refining, natural gas, steel, cement, electricity and fertilizers, accounts for 37.9 percent of India's industrial output.
India's fiscal deficit in the first eleven months of financial year 2013-14 touched Rs. 5.99 lakh crore, or 114.3 per cent of the full year target, government data showed on Monday.
The deficit was 97.4 per cent during April-February a year ago.
In the interim budget in February, the Congress-led government had revised the full-year fiscal deficit target to Rs. 5.25 lakh crore, or 4.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), from Rs. 5.42 lakh crore, or 4.8 per cent, earlier.
Net tax receipts were at Rs. 6.27 lakh crore in the first eleven months of the current fiscal year to March 2014, while total expenditure was about Rs. 14 lakh crore.
The markets creeped up on Monday, hitting a sixth consecutive record high and posting its best monthly gain since October, as strong foreign buying sparked a rally in tier one shares, especially those dependent on the domestic economy.
The Nifty's 6.81 per cent gain in March was its best performance since a 9.8 per cent gain in October. For the quarter, the index rose 6.35 per cent, a second consecutive rise since its 9.9 per cent gain in the October-December period.
Interest-rate sensitive stocks such as banks and property developer DLF Ltd have been the top gainers this month.The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to hold interest rates on hold on Tuesday, pausing after tightening monetary policy by 75 bps, or 0.75 per cent, since September.
We need to see whether the overseas fund flow will sustain. At this point in time, what we can say is markets should trade within a range and the undercurrent is positive.The RBI policy is a non-event as it has already been discounted. Participants are waiting for the election outcome, which will have a major impact than tomorrow's policy announcement.
The Sensex ended 0.21 per cent higher at 22,386.27 points, after earlier hitting a record high at 22,467.21.The broader Nifty gained 0.12 per cent to 6,704.20 points, after earlier hitting a record high of 6,730.05.The NSE rose 6.35 per cent during the fiscal year ending on Monday, marking a third consecutive yearly gain.
Trading volumes were thin since bond and currency markets were closed for a holiday.
Some banks extended gains even after posting a strong performance this month. State Bank of India rose 0.83 per cent on Monday, bringing its gain in March to 24 per cent., Punjab National Bank was the best performer of the NSE this month with a 35 per cent rally. On Monday it lost 0.85 per cent.
Shares more closely tied to the domestic economy also outperformed this month, while exporters such as Tata Consultancy Services Ltd have fallen as a stronger rupee is seen denting earnings.
Cement maker ACC Ltd gained 2.73 per cent on Monday and 26.67 per cent for the month. Jaiprakash Associates surged 2.48 per cent on Monday and 28.2 per cent for the month.
Metals stocks rose on Monday, extending a rally this month on hopes a new government would ease new infrastructure projects and on easing concerns about China's economy. Hindalco Industries gained 8.29 per cent, bringing its gain for the month to 34.6 per cent.
Capital goods companies saw some profit-taking. Larsen and Toubro lost 1.26 per cent after gaining 14.6 per cent till Friday and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd ended down 2.02 per cent. BHEL gained 16.9 per cent so far this month till Friday.
Gold prices rose cautiously this morning, in an attempt to rebound from the prior week’s decline as a slew of economic reports were poised to make for some volatile sessions throughout the week.Gold for June delivery was up $2.80, or 0.2%, to $1,297.10 an ounce. May silver, which had endured a nine-session losing streak until Friday, rose 3 cents to $19.83 an ounce.
This week ends with the jobs report, but other notable reports will be coming across the next few days including car sales, initial jobless claims and the ADP jobs number.Last week, gold futures was down about 3%, closing Friday below $1,300 an ounce as some upbeat economic data helped draw investors back to equities and away from the perceived safe have.
There could be more downside, with his average gold price forecast of $1,180 an ounce in the second quarter.
The positive news is that if the gold price falls far enough, Asia demand will improve and should, as it did last year, provide some support on the downside,however, until U.S. monetary policy has normalized, gold rallies will be short-lived
In metals trading, April platinum gained $13.90, or 1%, to $1,418.60 an ounce while June palladium tacked on $1.15 to $774.85 an ounce. High-grade copper for May delivery slipped 1 cent to $3.03 a pound.
Shares in GMR Infrastructure rose as much as 5.8 per cent after the company said its unit GMR Energy Ltd filed prospectus for an IPO with market regulator SEBI.GMR is aiming to raise about $250 million from the share sale,sources say.Shares in the company were up 3.7 per cent at 22.70 rupees at early morning trade.
The rally in markets and the currency has been due to heavy investment by the FII's. Foreign funds have purchased a net $3.7 billion in equities from the start of 2014 until March 27, while in debt the net inflows stand at $5.8 billion.
A turnaround in macroeconomic fundamentals, particularly the sharp narrowing in the current account deficit, has also helped the rupee. India's CAD is likely to be below 2 per cent in 2013-14 from a record high 4.8 per cent in 2012-13. Analysts have also credited Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan for the sharp reversal in the rupee's fortunes. The rupee has gained 13 per cent since September 2013 when Dr Rajan took over as RBI Governor.
The rupee's rise is good for importers, who will now have to pay less for buying products from abroad. So, oil marketing companies such as Indian Oil Company, BPCL and HPCL stand to gain. Lower fuel prices will also lead to further easing in inflation. The appreciating rupee will also benefit students who want to study abroad and Indian travelers going overseas.
However, the rising rupee poses a big risk to exporters, who will now earn less, unless they hike prices of their products. It's not surprising that IT stocks have fallen 11 per cent in the last one month as compared to 6 per cent rise in the Sensex.
Most analysts believe that there's little headroom for the rupee from these levels.
1)Forex Dealers say RBI has been buying dollars intermittently over the last week to slow the rupee's rise and also to shore up its foreign exchange reserves.
2) Analysts say if rupee strengthens too much then imported items will start competing with domestic manufacturers and India's exports will become less competitive. The RBI is unlikely to allow that to happen.
3) The biggest reason for the rise in rupee is falling imports and rising exports.The best for India's trade balance may be over. Gold imports are lower due to restrictions and 'excluded' smuggled gold, capital goods imports are down reflecting low investment in the economy and exports have started to taper,because of rupee appreciation.
4) According to HSBC Global Research, the Indian currency tends to benefit into an election, but struggles to maintain such positive momentum after the event.
5) Bank of America Merrill Lynch says UPA, NDA and United Front have all allowed the RBI to buy forex to secure rupee stability in the past. It expects Dr Rajan to hold Rs. 60-65 per dollar levels if the USD settles at 1.30/per euro. This means that even if a stable government comes to power, as anticipated by markets, the rupee is unlikely to rise much from current levels. However, if a weak government assumes power post polls, the rupee may come under pressure as foreign investors may repatriate funds.
The two Koreas are firing shells at each other's territorial waters, though the exchange hasn't hit any land areas and no casualties or damage have been reported, according to new media Monday. "For the moment, both sides are firing into the sea," Agence France-Presse quoted a South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesman as saying. Residents on one South Korean island near the artillery exchange have been evacuated, according to the Associated Press. Reports said North Korean forces had fired into the South's sea territory as part of a live-fire exercise, prompting South Korea to return fire
Banking stocks, particularly state-run banks, have rallied sharply over the last few days. The CNX PSU Bank index gained 13 per cent last week as compared to a two per cent gain in the broader Nifty.
Oriental Bank of Commerce, Union Bank and Punjab National Bank have rallied around 13 per cent each, while Bank of India, Allahabad Bank and State Bank of India have risen 10-11 per cent over the last week.
Investors have been buying banking stocks on hopes of a recovery in the domestic economy; central bank's potentially easing monetary policy and broker upgrades.
The latest brokerage to turn positive on banks is Barclays, which on Monday upgraded SBI to overweight from equalweight. Barclays also upgraded Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank to equalweight from underweight. It continues to retain its overweight call on private lenders such as ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank.
Barclays expects a gradual macro recovery and says FY15 will likely be another tough year for banks. However, it expects well capitalized banks to do well as the economy recovers. More accommodative monetary stance will bring further positivity to its outlook, Barclays added.
Barclays target on Axis Bank is Rs. 1,649; on HDFC Bank is Rs. 824, on SBI Rs. 2,250 and on ICICI Bank Rs. 1,332.