Where is Nifty heading too? And what will make Nifty do what it has to do? The two questions which needs to be answered as we head for elections and wait for its outcome. The earning season is more or less over and it has been from mixed to better than expected.The nifty will focus on Monday as to what the finance minisiter will do, he will be doing his high wire act , to see that fiscal discipline on which he has staked his reputation and on other hand the wants of his party to seem popular with sops thrown out to the masses.There is a third group , the industry captains who need an exit strategy from the negative growth an relief from high excise and custom duty. How he will balance all this together is what we need to see, and see we shall on Monday.
Once the finance ministers act is over then we shall see global ,Asian market cues taking over and with special emphasis to emerging market happenings. This should continue till the next RBI policy meet and chances of an interest rate cut, happening is very remote. By that time we should see the poll process being declared and the flurry of opinion polls giving their paid and unpaid, mostly biased opinions.
Once the election is done, and the result comes out, which any case will be a hung parliament or serious horse trading is done, which means, it will be a weak government is in the offing.Then the markets will take a turn for the southerly direction, the correction will not be a small one but a deep one , revisiting levels which one thought will not be seen again.The caveat is that we assume that the market will be keeping a steady course in growth and nothing untoward will happen to make this not happen.The time line is long in current market scenario, but will try to update, modify and inform in advance as we go along.
Once the finance ministers act is over then we shall see global ,Asian market cues taking over and with special emphasis to emerging market happenings. This should continue till the next RBI policy meet and chances of an interest rate cut, happening is very remote. By that time we should see the poll process being declared and the flurry of opinion polls giving their paid and unpaid, mostly biased opinions.
Once the election is done, and the result comes out, which any case will be a hung parliament or serious horse trading is done, which means, it will be a weak government is in the offing.Then the markets will take a turn for the southerly direction, the correction will not be a small one but a deep one , revisiting levels which one thought will not be seen again.The caveat is that we assume that the market will be keeping a steady course in growth and nothing untoward will happen to make this not happen.The time line is long in current market scenario, but will try to update, modify and inform in advance as we go along.