The market has become surreal, our market as well as the one in US. We do not need a black swan event, we shall have that very soon enough when the estimates on the election outcome becomes clear. Till then we shall see this market rise and keep rising as there is no end to it. 7000 on nifty is now looking more certain.It will be crossed soon. As does 23k on Sensex ,which will be crossed earlier.Not to forget bank nifty which should cross 13500 with ease.State Bank of India will retain its past glory when it crosses, 2000 soon.All the doomsday prophets have disappeared from the market, who predicted 1200, 800 level for this bank.
The only dark cloud in this otherwise clear sky is the Chinese data due on 1st April, if that is negative then we could see some sort of pause or even a slight dip which should make it an opportunity to buy on dips.The US. market, is another story .If it is able to break out from the channel it is stuck in then we should see a strong up move, otherwise it will fall to the lower range of the channel and any negative news will make it go into a correction.Chinese data coming out will be something it will not or cannot discount if negative.
This rally should continue till the voting begins and then would become volatile till the opinion polls and ultimately the results come out. That could either trigger a jump or a deep correction. Once reality sinks into this matter, we shall see it back to levels where fundamentals take precedence.
Not last but least, Rupee has played its part well in this rally. It should be seen moving close to the 59 range, with the momentum it has at the moment,provided the RBI does not intervene aggressively.If one goes by Raghu Ram's style, he will hedge for the rainy day, after all, this money which has come in 3 billion or so into the market, is nothing but hot money which has flowed in for the elections and from other beleaguered emerging markets.They are here for a short duration and none have the inclination to be around for the long haul.
April, is going to be an exciting month,make the best of it .These are events which will not happen often.Trade safe and without emotion.Grab every opportunity, and delivery is not an option at these levels.For that we have other occasions.
The only dark cloud in this otherwise clear sky is the Chinese data due on 1st April, if that is negative then we could see some sort of pause or even a slight dip which should make it an opportunity to buy on dips.The US. market, is another story .If it is able to break out from the channel it is stuck in then we should see a strong up move, otherwise it will fall to the lower range of the channel and any negative news will make it go into a correction.Chinese data coming out will be something it will not or cannot discount if negative.
This rally should continue till the voting begins and then would become volatile till the opinion polls and ultimately the results come out. That could either trigger a jump or a deep correction. Once reality sinks into this matter, we shall see it back to levels where fundamentals take precedence.
Not last but least, Rupee has played its part well in this rally. It should be seen moving close to the 59 range, with the momentum it has at the moment,provided the RBI does not intervene aggressively.If one goes by Raghu Ram's style, he will hedge for the rainy day, after all, this money which has come in 3 billion or so into the market, is nothing but hot money which has flowed in for the elections and from other beleaguered emerging markets.They are here for a short duration and none have the inclination to be around for the long haul.
April, is going to be an exciting month,make the best of it .These are events which will not happen often.Trade safe and without emotion.Grab every opportunity, and delivery is not an option at these levels.For that we have other occasions.