The situation in the US markets also look dangerous, the earning season has not been exceptional.The earnings have to be exceptional to move the Index. This has not happened, where as the critical levels have been breached in the down ward movements earlier. Some more bad news will topple the balance and the market will go in for a deep correction.
The emerging or rather the submerging market problems are not over, in my opinion it is just the beginning. India is in a better situation then most of the BRIC and TIMS. However even we have our limits. Many indicators are due to be announced this week which will make our market dance to various tunes.
Europe is also in dire straits, even with the money flowing in from the US markets, it has not done much. The way it has been behaving is something worth studying deeply.They get effected by the emerging market crisis more easily than the US markets. Major announcements are expected next week which will turn the market on its head.
The Asian market will be in full swing on Tuesday with the Chinese, and Hongkong market opening after the holidays.There are many hidden variables with the Chinese market, the credit crisis, and the real estate bubble. It will magnify the problems when they appear.They will play catch up with the US markets and we should see some strong correction there. It has not been
The FII's have been poor buyers in our market and do not expect them to do any serious buying till things are sorted out one way or the other.The DII's will bottom fish and once the Index cracks we could see them sitting out till it reaches the bottom, for them to come in and seriously do some buying.The weakest link will be the bank nifty.The sooner we see some upward movement the better, if it collapses then everything is down.
The market will rise tomorrow which will give an opportunity for many to exit their long positions, some in profit.My view is exit and wait it out and see where this market is heading till one makes long term commitment .6250 on the spot Nifty means the trend has turned, below that it is a caveat emptore.