A late rally on Friday saw the Nifty break the range of 5950-6150 and close above, ending the week with gains of 1.77 per cent. Technically, the nifty will now try to test 6250 on the upside and fill the gap it left on 24th January. It now finds support at 6075, and will find resistance at 6250. The high beta "bank nifty" outperformed and ended the week gaining 3.43 per cent. It now finds support at 10325 which is the 20 DMA (day moving average) and finds resistance at 10875 which is the 100 DMA.
The other important observance was the outperformance of the Indian rupee and indices in the global context. This was on the back of continued volatility in the emerging market currencies and bond markets. Ukraine and Venezuela were in the "eye of the storm" as violence and disruption in the financial markets saw credit rating downgrades. This saw global market cues turning negative which saw consecutive days of Nifty gains and losses.
Global cues were mixed with collateral damage in emerging market currencies again resurfacing. This also saw gold rally for the 3rd consecutive week as investors rushed to defensive assets.
With most event risks over in the Indian context, expect outperformance to continue on the back of lower inflation, better cash management by the government and renewed thrust on growth. The other important event for the next week would be the expiry of derivative contracts which could see heightened volatility, also market will watch out for GDP numbers due on Friday.