SPX 100 DMA is about 1810. Lower channel is near 1770. Look for a move between those points, but closer to the lower channel. Each recent correction has held the lower channel and breached the 100 DMA by 1-2%.
Technical indicators status:
1) VIX bottomed in low 14's, rather than 12.5-13 froth zone,
2) SPX came within 2% of upper channel indicating rally was 90% complete,
3) Investor sentiment (AAII) was neutral,
4) MACD for major averages accomplished negative crossover from high levels (very bad).
Direct drop below 1800 not very likely, but it is looking more likely for for a bottom in early April.