Japan (Nikkei Average) up 0.1% (at break)
Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) down 1%
Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) down 2.1%
Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.1%
Seoul (Kospi) down 0.3%
Taipei (Taiex) down 0.3%
pax1, markets, nse, bse, dija, dow, S&P,gold, rupee, pmi, tata, reliance,
More chinese trouble is looming in the horizon, and this time round it is the property market.It is begining to get jittery.The prices which came out this morning has shown an increase which will prompt the government to put in fresh curbs.And this is on top of less access to financing for both developers and home buyers.
Japan (Nikkei Average) up 0.1% (at break) Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) down 1% Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) down 2.1% Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.1% Seoul (Kospi) down 0.3% Taipei (Taiex) down 0.3% The Index has to stay above 6160-- 6165 for it to go higher the next resistance level is 6193 and 6212 a supply zone which if taken out then we could see 6244 6260.However it should not break 6140 and 6110.Otherwise we could see lower levels.
The bank nifty should take out the supply zone of 10600 - 10625 if and when it takes it out then the next zone of 10680 - 10775. If this is taken out strongly we could see it go to 10900 levels. If it fails and falls below 10420 we could see the bulls pushing it back up strongly.
SGX NIFTY WAS TRADING 10 POINTS HIGHER The fight between the bulls and the bears did see the bulls managing to protect 200 DMA on a weekly basis and lose above 6150 which was more or less the upper level of the range, now the question is will it be able to sustain it, the FIB retracement at 61.8 percent at 6192, and once this is crossed we can see it heading towards 6240 levels with greater momentum. However we need to see closings above 6120 for the next 2 to 3 days.The range 61800 to 6200 is going to see some more fights between the two stock market creatures, and the winner will take it all.The levels to watch out for is 6160 move up from here will see an uptrend with first resistance at 6200, and at 6260 and 6320. If it falls we can see its support at 6120 which needs to be maintained at all cost and then at 6076 and 6030.But as things stand we shall see a closing at the nearly the same levels we have see in the last couple of months.
India's Internet population rose to 238.71 million last year helped by growing number of users especially in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, Parliament was informed on Wednesday.
In a written reply to Lok Sabha, Minister of State for Communication and IT Milind Deora said: "As per the Census of India 2011, 9.4 per cent of households of India have access to computers and 3.1 per cent of households have Internet." Quoting Trai data, the Minister added that India's total Internet subscribers stood at 238.71 million as of December 31, 2013. Maharashtra has the largest Internet subscribers at 38.78 million followed by Uttar Pradesh (22.90 million), Tamil Nadu (19.65 million), Gujarat (17.92 million) and Andhra Pradesh (17.07 million), Deora said. Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) had pegged Internet subscribers in India at 164.81 million as of March 31, 2013, with seven out of eight accessing the Internet from their mobile phones. The world's biggest economies vowed Sunday to boost global growth by more than $2 trillion over five years, shifting their focus away from austerity as a fragile recovery takes hold.
Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20, which accounts for 85 per cent of the world economy, also agreed to pursue greater transparency about monetary policy after rifts about the US taper. They expressed "deep regret" that reforms to the International Monetary Fund have stalled, because the United States Congress has yet to ratify them. After their meeting in Sydney, the G20 ministers issued what host Australia called "an unprecedented" and unusually brief two-page statement to drive "a return to strong, sustainable and balanced growth in the global economy". "We will develop ambitious but realistic policies with the aim to lift our collective GDP by more than two percent above the trajectory implied by current policies over the coming five years," they said in reference to two percentage points. "This is over US$2.0 trillion more in real terms and will lead to significant additional jobs." Asserting that India is well placed to weather financial crisis, RBI Governor Dr Raghuram Rajan today said the central banks of developed nations must also keep in mind emerging nations while framing monetary policies.
"I don't think we can proceed forward saying everybody is in their own boat and they sink or swim alone," he said in reference to the need for advanced nations, like the US, to take heed of countries vulnerable to the stimulus withdrawal. In his interview to 'The Australian Financial Review', Dr Rajan said while India was well placed to weather the upheaval, advanced nations must recognise the impact of their monetary policy decisions on other economies and "be prepared to act if things get out of kilter". At the conclusion of their two-day meet, G20 said their finance ministers and central bank governors recognised that monetary policy needs to remain accommodative in many advanced economies and should normalise in due course. India and other emerging economies have been asking the US, which has started gradual withdrawal of its fiscal stimulus, to be more predictable in monetary policy. The US Federal tapering has caused flight of capital out of emerging economies and in turn hammering their currencies. The G20 communique said: "All our central banks maintain their commitment that monetary policy settings will continue to be carefully calibrated and clearly communicated, in the context of ongoing exchange of information and being mindful of impacts on the global economy The newly released transcripts from the Federal Reserve’s meetings in 2008, show they didn’t fully understand the magnitude of what was happening to the economy or how much worse things would get. They saw some painful shifts coming, like soaring gas prices and weaker spending. Here are some trends that helped Fed officials realize what was happening—and ones that might be valuable to investors and consumers on the lookout for the next crisis.
Oil futures climb As early as January, Fed officials had a hunch that gas prices were about to soar. Members watched as oil futures, a measure of the direction of oil prices that the typical driver may not watch closely, climbed higher. “I should note that households are on the verge of experiencing another stiff increase in gasoline prices over the next couple of months,” said David J. Stockton, who was then an economist with the Federal Reserve, during a Jan. 9, 2008 conference call. “And households are probably not yet aware that that’s on the way, except for those that actually follow oil futures markets.” Oil prices peaked that July at nearly $150 a barrel and consumers faced sticker shock at the pump when gas prices topped $4 a gallon. Prices eventually came tumbling back down as the mortgage market collapsed. While higher gas prices aren’t necessarily a sign of an impending recession, consumers struggling to pay for gas often cut back spending in other areas, which can hurt the economy. And once energy price spikes subsided, Fed officials noted in the Dec. 16 meeting that any consumers feeling that relief had much bigger issues to worry about—such as sinking home prices. Retailers slash prices One sign there’s recession afoot: Consumers move to the bargain basement. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen—then the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco—said during the January 2008 meeting: “On consumer spending, two large retailers report very subdued expectations going forward following the weak holiday season, which involved a lot of discounting.” By October, consumers were glum. “A home appliance retailer adds that he has never seen more uncertainty and gloom from both the retailers and the vendors,” Yellen noted. “This sentiment is echoed by a large retailer who says simply, ‘The holiday shopping season is going to stink.’” By December, shoppers were indeed staying home. “Retailers are seeing a noticeable drop in attendance at their stores,” said Richard Fisher, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Credit card debt soars This was one of the first warning signs that Americans were facing an economic crisis. “Some of the recent rise in delinquency rates for credit cards is in states with the largest house-price declines, and could represent spillovers from weak housing markets,” according to Nellie Liang, an economist on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the Jan. 29 to 30, 2008 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. At the April 29 to 30 meeting, Fisher noted: “Wal-Mart reports the ‘cascading’ use of credit as a form of payment, as their CEO for U.S. operations put it.” By October, 60% of banks surveyed had tightened standards on both credit cards and other consumer loans, according to William Bassett, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Bond markets rally Bond market strength is often regarded as a sign that nervous investors are moving their money out of the stock market. The January 21, 2008 conference call was no exception. “Bond markets reacted as you might expect,” said William Dudley, then-executive vice president of the Market Group at the New York Fed. “Bond markets rallied as people became more pessimistic about the stock market.” As an indicator, it’s only as reliable as skittish investors, however. Stockton found what would turn out to be a brief glimmer of hope at the April 29 to 30, 2008 meeting. “More broadly, with bond spreads down, the stock market up, and market expectations for the path of policy revised higher, the situation certainly looks less menacing than at the time of the March meeting.” Consumer sentiment drops “The total drop that we have seen in recent months is similar to drops seen before previous recessions,” Stockton said of consumer confidence, a gauge of how consumers feel about their finances and the economy overall, during the Jan. 9 conference call. At the time, consumer spending was still exceeding expectations, justifying Stockton’s claim that officials were “not ready to make a recession call yet.” But confidence continued to sink as consumers faced steep job losses, sinking home prices and higher energy prices. By August, officials noted consumer sentiment had reached “sub-basement levels” and businesses were reporting weaker demand for goods. By September, consumers were falling behind on their loans and the credit crunch had begun. “Consumers do not have the same resilience now that they did at one point,” Randall Kroszner, then a governor of the Federal Reserve, said during the Sept. 16 meeting, two days after Lehman Brothers collapsed. “It’s not surprising that, after having run this marathon, they’re going to be a bit tired.” BHEL Buy above 152 for 152 and 154 sl 151
Sell below 150 for 149 and 147 sl 151 DLF Buy above 144 for 145 and 147 sl 143 Sell below 142 for 140 and 139 sl 143 HCL TECH Buy above 1542 for 1566 and 1594 sl 1530 Sell below 1505 for 1491 and 1443 sl 1519 ICICI Buy above 1029 for 1035 and 1045 sl 1026 Sell below 1018 for 1023 and 1013 sl 1023 AXIS Buy above 1196 for 1208 and 1222 sl 1190 Sell below 1177 for 1170 and 1146 sl 1184 SBI Buy above 1504 for 1510 and 1517 sl 1500 Sell below 1494 for 1490 and 1477 sl 1497 INFY Buy above 3753 for 3762 and 3773 sl 3749 Sell below 3739 for 3734 and 3716 sl 3744 TCS Buy above 2209 for 2216 and 2225 sl 2206 Sell below 2198 for 2193 and 2181 sl 2203 REL CAP Buy above 318 for 321 and 324 sl 318 Sell below 316 for 315 and 311 sl 318 RELIANCE Buy above 814 for 816 and 821 sl 812 Sell below 809 for 806 and 801 sl 811 LNT Buy above 1056 for 1063 and 1070 sl 1053 Sell below 1046 for 1042 and 1029 sl 1050 Tata Motors Buy above 397 for 398 and 401 sl 396 Sell below 395 for 393 and 391 sl 396 Tata Steel Buy above 375 for 378 and 381 sl 374 Sell below 371 for 369 and 363 sl 372 Apollo Tyres Buy above 125 for 126 and 127 sl 125 Sell below 124 for 124 and 123 sl 125 Airtel Buy above 293 for 296 and 303 sl 292 Sell below 287 for 283 and 279 sl 291 Idea Buy above 130 for 131 and 134 sl 130 Sell below 128 for 127 and 125 sl 129 ZEEL Buy above 271 for 273 and 275 sl 270 Sell below 268 for 266 and 262 sl 269 TechMah Buy above 1849 for 1855 and 1863 sl 1846 Sell below 1839 for 1835 and 1833 sl 1843 SSLT Buy above 187 for 187 and 188 sl 186 Sell below 186 for 185 and 184 sl186 Rcom Buy above 115 for 116 and 121 sl 114 Sell below 111 for 109 and 107 sl 114 JP Associates Buy above 42 for 42.4 and 42.9 sl 41.8 Sell below 41.4 for 41.1 and 40.3 sl 41.6 Cipla Buy above 372 for 373 and 377 sl 371 Sell below 368 for 367 and 364 sl 370 Ranbaxy Buy above 359 for 361 and 369 sl 358 Sell below 353 for 349 and 344 sl 357 Lupin Buy above 943 for 947 and 957 sl 942 Sell below 935 for 929 and 922 sl 940 Biocon Buy above 445 for 446 and 449 sl 444 Sell below 442 for 440 and 437 sl 443 The government has approved eight foreign investment proposals, including plans by L&T Infrastructure Development Projects and Welspun Renewables Energy, totalling Rs. 1,024 crore.
The proposals were cleared following recommendations from the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) headed by Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram, the Finance Ministry said. The FIPB referred a proposal by Singapore-based KKR Floorline Investments to the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA). Although the ministry did not mention an amount in this case, foreign investment proposals exceeding Rs. 1,200 crore require the approval of the CCEA. L&T Infrastructure Development Projects got the go-ahead to allot securities to a wholly owned subsidiary of Singapore-based CCP Investment, entailing a foreign fund inflow of Rs. 1,000 crore. Welspun Renewables Energy received approval to issue equity shares equivalent to a 13.3 per cent stake to Asian Development Bank for Rs. 310 crore ($50 million) and sell convertible debentures for Rs. 220 crore ($35 million) to Deutsche Investitions- und Entwicklungsgesellschaft. Cordlife Sciences India has been allowed to increase foreign equity participation up to 100 per cent and to issue convertible preference shares. Yes Regulatory Healthcare Service, Rajoo Bausano Extrusion, Eurecat India Catalyst Services and ZF India have been allowed to go ahead with their investment plans. The KKR Floorline proposal, which has been referred to the CCEA, relates to investments in Gland Pharma and Gland Celsus Bio Chemicals. The government rejected three investment proposals, including that of Gastaad Hotels, and deferred decisions on four. Nifty Futures
Nifty closed up 64.00 points (1.05%) at 6155.45 while Nifty Future closed at 6163.95, premium of 8.50 points.
Out Look for tomorrow Buy Nifty Future above 6169 - 6180 - 6200 - 6230 SL - 6148 Sell Nifty Future below 6137 - 6125 - 6105 - 6080 SL – 6165 Bank Nifty futures Bank Nifty closed up 126.05 points (1.21%) at 10554.35 while Future closed at 10567.05, premium of 12.70 points. Out Look for tomorrow Buy BankNifty Future above 10576 - 10620 - 10675 - 10755 SL - 10536 Sell BankNifty Future below 10520 - 10490 - 10415 - 10350 SL - 10550 World's 20 leading economies today agreed to start automatic sharing of tax information by end 2015, while emphasising that multinational corporations be taxed in countries where they earn their profits.
Amid large number of tax avoidance cases, India and other economies have been pressing for effective system for getting financial information from other nations, especially low tax jurisdictions. Shifting corporate profits from high-tax countries to low tax jurisdictions is being debated worldwide in the backdrop of several large MNCs not paying fair share of taxes anywhere. The Sensex will test and cross the 21000 levels after 4 weeks of consolidation. With foreign flows turning positive also expect Indian rupee and stocks to outperform in the emerging market basket of countries.
A late rally on Friday saw the Nifty break the range of 5950-6150 and close above, ending the week with gains of 1.77 per cent. Technically, the nifty will now try to test 6250 on the upside and fill the gap it left on 24th January. It now finds support at 6075, and will find resistance at 6250. The high beta "bank nifty" outperformed and ended the week gaining 3.43 per cent. It now finds support at 10325 which is the 20 DMA (day moving average) and finds resistance at 10875 which is the 100 DMA. The other important observance was the outperformance of the Indian rupee and indices in the global context. This was on the back of continued volatility in the emerging market currencies and bond markets. Ukraine and Venezuela were in the "eye of the storm" as violence and disruption in the financial markets saw credit rating downgrades. This saw global market cues turning negative which saw consecutive days of Nifty gains and losses. Global cues were mixed with collateral damage in emerging market currencies again resurfacing. This also saw gold rally for the 3rd consecutive week as investors rushed to defensive assets. With most event risks over in the Indian context, expect outperformance to continue on the back of lower inflation, better cash management by the government and renewed thrust on growth. The other important event for the next week would be the expiry of derivative contracts which could see heightened volatility, also market will watch out for GDP numbers due on Friday. Foreign investors have poured almost Rs. 11,000 crore into the Indian debt market so far this month after being net sellers of bonds in 2013. The inflows followed a net investment of Rs. 12,609 crore in the preceding month.
According to market experts, FII inflows into debt are returning on account of the stability observed in foreign exchange and interest rates. Foreign institutional investors were gross buyers of debt securities worth Rs. 21,210 crore and sellers of bonds to the tune of Rs.10,219 crore till February 21, resulting in a net inflow of Rs. 10,991 crore ($1.77 billion), according to data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. During this period, FIIs pulled out Rs. 549 crore from the equity market. In 2013, overseas investors withdrew Rs. 50,847 crore ($8 billion) from the bond market and infused Rs. 1.13 lakh crore ($20.1 billion) in equities. They started pulling out from the Indian debt market after the US Federal Reserve first indicated in May that it would taper its stimulus programme, raising concerns that funds available for investing in emerging markets may be reduced. The Fed subsequently started reducing its bond purchases in January. The rupee, which touched an all-time low of 68.85 in August, has recovered and closed at 62.12 against the dollar on Friday. As of February 21, there were 1,726 registered FIIs in the country and 6,367 sub-accounts. There is no doubt that the founder of HCL Technologies Ltd. is sounding out buyers for his $10 billion stake in India's fourth-largest software and outsourcing firm in what could be the mother of all sale of an Indian company so far.
The smallest and youngest of India's big four information technology groups, HCL was founded by Shiv Nadar in 1991. Mr. Nadar has received bids for HCL in the past but has long said that he has no plans to sell. But now, the 69-year-old is open to considering selling his stake because his only child, daughter, Roshni Nadar, isn't interested in continuing in the technology business, one of the people said. Ms. Nadar, 32, a graduate of Northwestern University in Chicago where she concentrated on television production and journalism, sits on the HCL Technologies board, and is the chief executive of its holding company HCL Corp. Shiv Nadar controls 62% of Bombay Stock Exchange-listed HCL, and has yet to hire bankers to advise him on a sale, the people said. Mr. Nadar will only formally appoint advisers if he is satisfied with the potential offer, the people said. HCL Corp. Friday said it had no plans to exit. This after news of the planned sale was published. "HCL Corp. denies any plans to exit HCL Technologies," the holding company of HCL Technologies said in a statement. HCL Corp. also owns Mumbai-listed computer hardware distributor HCL Infosystems Ltd. HCL, along with bigger peers Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., Infosys Ltd., and Wipro Ltd., has been buoyed by the pickup in the U.S. economy and the weaker rupee, because it earns a chunk of its revenue from the U.S. HCL posted a 39% net profit gain, in U.S. dollars, for the three months ended December. Proceeds from a sale by Mr. Nadar would be invested in HCL's health-care and education businesses that his daughter is spearheading, both people added. The Shiv Nadar Foundation, of which Ms. Nadar is a trustee, is already active in supporting education initiatives. The foundation runs an engineering college in the southern Indian city of Chennai and the Shiv Nadar University in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. The foundation also runs schools that teach impoverished children free. In February, HCL Healthcare, a recently formed unit of HCL Corp. said it would invest $161 million over five years into the health-care and well-being business. HCL Healthcare runs a health-care delivery unit called HCL Avitas, which has collaborated with Johns Hopkins Medicine International to run multi-specialty clinics across India. Mr. Nadar's son-in-law. Shikhar Malhotra, is the vice chairman of HCL Healthcare and the chief executive of Shiv Nadar School--a not-for-profit K-12 school initiative of the Shiv Nadar Foundation that aims to establish 25 schools across India by 2020. He is also a director and a board member of HCL Corp. Mr. Malhotra "drives [the foundation's] strategic initiatives and future road map," HCL's website said. If the sale happens and a tender offer for additional shares held by minority shareholders is made in compliance with local rules, it could be the biggest stake sale in India ever. The biggest acquisition of an Indian company was in 2007, when Vodafone Group PLC agreed to pay $12.9 billion for a majority stake in Hutchison Essar Ltd. The most recent such exit in the technology sector was when Baring Private Equity Asia agreed to buy a 68% stake in Indian software company Hexaware Technologies Ltd. for about $434 million from founder Atul Nishar and General Atlantic LLC in August 2013. In January 2011, the founding brothers of Patni Computer Systems Ltd. sold their stake to a private-equity-led consortium in a deal valued at $1.22 billion. India's tech sector is a favorite of foreign investors, however, and was where most deals in the country took place last year. Data from Dealogic showed that there were 47 acquisitions of stakes in Indian tech firms last year valued at a total of $788 million, the highest in terms of deals among any sector. After interning with television channels CNBC TV18 in India and CNN in New York, Ms. Nader worked for a year-and-a-half at Sky News in London. In 2006, Ms. Nadar decided to pursue her management program in social enterprise and management and strategy from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern in Evanston, Illinois. "That's where the world of philanthropy came about," Ms. Nadar said in a November interview with The Wall Street Journal. HCL Technologies' stock price has more than doubled to 1,490 rupees ($23.97) a share in the past 12 months on the Bombay Stock Exchange, data showed. It earned a revenue of more than $5 billion for the calendar year that ended in December. However, an investment professional questioned whether there would be any takers as Mr. Nadar would expect a premium over the market price to hand over control. Also, under current Indian rules, any acquirer must offer to buy a 25% stake in the company. That could cost an additional $4.21 billion and would take a potential acquirer's stake to 86.75% if all minority shareholders agree to sell their shares. But local laws also require that no majority shareholder or founder own more than 75% in a listed company. That would leave a potential acquirer a tough choice--delist HCL Technologies by paying another $2.2 billion, or sell part of its stake to bring its shareholding in line with statutory requirements. Under Indian takeover rules, anyone buying more than 26% needs to offer to buy an additional 25% from minority shareholders. The other alternative for a potential buyer would be to acquire only 50% of Mr. Nadar's stake, which is valued at about $8.4 billion at current market value. But they still have to make a tender offer if they acquire 26% in a company. Generic drugs that make up almost 80 percent of U.S. prescriptions are being tested in the first widespread safety and quality evaluation run by the Food and Drug Administration.
The $20 million effort, coming as concerns grow over the quality of products from abroad, started in September without any public notice. At least a dozen academic centers are involved in a testing program that will run through 2017, agency officials confirmed. The research this year will focus on heart drugs, ADHD treatments, immunosuppressants, anti-seizure medicines, and antidepressants. Results aren’t yet available. Testing of generic drugs previously has been done only on an occasional basis in the U.S. The program, testing medicines made domestically and overseas, reflects a new emphasis by the FDA on the quality of copycat drugs. The agency has banned the import of treatments made at four India-based plants over the last nine months, and the FDA chief visited that country last week to talk with government officials and companies there. New fees collected from the generics industry to fund FDA reviews, approved by Congress in 2012, enabled the agency to put more broad-based testing into action. Ranbaxy, based in Gurgaon, India, was allowed by the FDA to sell the first generic copies of Lipitor in 2011. Wockhardt, based in Mumbai, controlled about 26 percent of the U.S. market for the generic version of the Toprol-XL, known as metoprolol, to treat high blood pressure and heart failure prior to a ban on its Chikalthana plant that makes the pill, according to Needham & Co. Hamburg said the FDA didn’t see the need to recall the medicines sold at four banned plants in India. “Our goal is to prevent problems from occurring when we see situations that may represent an imminent problem,” Hamburg said yesterday on a conference call about her trip to India. “We monitor adverse event reports very carefully and use that information for our decision-making.” The FDA also is creating a new Office of Pharmaceutical Quality to improve the agency’s scrutiny of brand name, generic and over-the-counter drugs. The agency is talking with the industry to develop data that may signal which manufacturing plants are straying from standards and need inspection, said Janet Woodcock, director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research. Nifty future levels
The Pivot will be at 6150 R1 6183 S1 6131 R2 6202 S2 6099 R3 6254 S3 6047 Bank Nifty Futures The Pivot will be at 10542 R1 10625 S1 10485 R2 10682 S2 10402 R3 10822 S3 10262 Moody’s Corp., owner of the second-largest credit-ratings company, is seeking to purchase a majority stake in Indian grader ICRA Ltd. , expanding its existing 28.5 percent position.
Moody’s is offering to buy as much as 2.65 million of the New Delhi-based company’s shares for 2,000 Indian rupees each, a 28.7 percent premium to their closing level today on the National Stock Exchange of India. The U.S. credit grader, which first purchased a stake in ICRA in 1998, is making the offer on the condition it acquires enough to boost its ownership to more than 50 percent, it said in the statement. McGraw Hill Financial Inc. , owner of Standard & Poor’s, the largest ratings firm, said in August it had increased its stake in Indian competitor Crisil Ltd. to 68 percent from 53 percent after a similar tender offer. “We look forward to expanding and deepening our collaboration with ICRA as it provides research and ratings for the growing domestic debt market in India as well as other emerging markets in the region,” Moody’s Chief Executive Officer Raymond McDaniel said in the statement. Goldman Sachs Asset Management and William Blair Investment Management are buying the rupee as India reins in a current-account deficit that drove the currency to a record low in August.
The rupee, which slid 21 percent in the past two years, looks “cheap” relative to India’s improving external finances, according to Goldman Sachs Asset, which opened a “small long” position on the currency this year. William Blair has boosted the currency to about 20 percent of its foreign-exchange holdings for its higher yield and inexpensive valuation, said Chicago-based fund manager Brian D. Singer. The rupee has rebounded more than 10 percent from last year’s all-time low of 68.845 per dollar as India curbed gold imports to shore up the current account and the central bank acted to spur dollar inflows. Only Indonesia’s rupiah has fallen more than the rupee among Asian emerging markets. Options are signaling increased confidence in the rupee as external balances improve and price pressures cool. One-month implied volatility, a gauge of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, has eased to 8.17 percent from last year’s peak of 22.4 percent in September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Carry traders, who borrow in currencies with lower yields and buy those with higher rates, have earned 4.1 percent on rupee investments using dollars since Sept. 30, the most among 23 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Favorable policies will help the rupee and Indonesia’s rupiah perform better than currencies of other nations with current-account deficits such as Brazil, Turkey and South Africa, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Fiona Lake wrote in a Feb. 19 report. The appointment of Rajan, an economist credited with presaging the 2008 global financial crisis, as the RBI’s head encouraged William Blair, which oversaw more than $72 billion as of Dec. 31, to boost bullish positions on the rupee, according to portfolio manager Singer. “The rupee is a cheap currency with significant carry,” he said in an interview in Melbourne yesterday. It “has deviated from fundamentals and should not be included in the fragile five,” he added, referring to a description used by Morgan Stanley last year to describe currencies most vulnerable to capital flight. The real posted the biggest weekly gain in emerging markets as Brazil reported higher-than-forecast foreign investment a day after the government pledged to reduce spending.
The real appreciated 1.8 percent this week to 2.3457 per U.S. dollar, the strongest closing level since Jan. 20. It rose 1.1 percent in Sao Paulo today. Swap rates maturing in January 2016 fell five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 11.77 percent, extending their decrease since Feb. 14 to 46 basis points. Finance Minister Guido Mantega said today on a conference call that Brazil will make an extra effort to meet its fiscal goals if a boost in spending is needed to compensate for higher energy costs. The government announced yesterday that it would cut 44 billion reais from this year’s budget, allowing Brazil to meet a primary surplus target, excluding interest payments, of 1.9 percent of gross domestic product. To support the real and limit import price increases, Brazil sold $197.5 million of foreign-exchange swaps today under a program announced in December. The central bank also held an auction to extend maturities on swaps due in March, rolling over $516.8 million. Shorter-term swap rates climbed earlier today as the national statistics agency reported that consumer prices rose 5.65 percent in the 12 months through mid-February, higher than the median forecast of 5.62 percent from economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the central bank’s 4.5 percent target. Brazil lifted the benchmark lending rate on Jan. 15 by 50 basis points for a sixth consecutive meeting, increasing it to 10.50 percent. The central bank has raised borrowing costs by 325 basis points since April. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index posting a two-week advance, as the yen capped its steepest weekly decline this year after the Bank of Japan boosted lending programs and U.S. manufacturing expanded.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.5 percent to 137.40 this week. Through yesterday the equity benchmark has climbed 1.9 percent this month, rebounding from a January slump, as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s first testimony to Congress boosted optimism in the world’s biggest economy. Reports this week showed U.S. factory activity in February surpassed economists’ estimates, while the number of Americans applying for jobless benefits dropped. The yen fell as much as 0.9 percent against the dollar. Japan’s Topix index advanced 3.3 percent this week, the biggest such gain in three months. The central bank pledged to maintain plans to expand the monetary base by 60 trillion yen to 70 trillion yen ($585 billion to $682 billion) per year and boosted lending programs as policy makers seek to revive the world’s third-biggest economy. The country’s trade deficit jumped 71 percent to a record 2.79 trillion in January as surging import costs weigh on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign to drive a sustained recovery. While the yen’s 18 percent decline against the dollar last year has led companies from Toyota to Mitsubishi Motors Corp. to forecast record profits, inflation driven by higher import costs is squeezing households. Japan is in a unique situation as the BOJ continues to add stimulus, while the Fed is beginning to taper. China’s central bank sold repurchase contracts this week for the first time since June, draining funds from the banking system. The move came after aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit, climbed to a record 2.58 trillion yuan ($424 billion) in January, data showed Feb. 15. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) advanced on Feb. 17 after the credit report before ending the week 0.1 percent lower. A private gauge of the nation’s manufacturing fell to a seven-month low, data showed Feb. 20. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 1.2 percent on the week. South Korea’s Kospi index increased 0.9 percent, while Taiwan’s Taiex index rose 1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 1.5 percent, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.8 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index gained 2 percent. The IT sector is going to remain the flavor of the investors too this year. There has been talk of sector rotation and moving into banks and financial.This has been talk till now and we really do not see much happening that way. The earning season in the US has been very good given the circumstances and there will be increase in the IT spend too rest of the year. The logic that it is cheaper to invest more on IT than in human resources and increasing the hiring has been working. The output increase for dollar spent is significant.This would only see an increase in the IT spend. The European market too has been recovering fast enough for the IT spend to increase significantly. The big league players like Infosys , TCS, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and HCL Tech have also significantly ramped up there operations to cash in this opportunity.HCL Tech has been the big story last year and we could see it continuing this, rest of this year too. TCS, will meet its targets and the quarter 4 will be the result to look out for, when it would have ensured that the grip on the market has increased and it will be difficult to dislodge . Infosy's is still a hazy picture.The two quarters since the return of Nayanamurthy has been good, but the acid test will be the coming fourth quarter. The long term plans put in by him should now either work or going off the rails.The effect of the new team in place should be showing some sort of result too.If the gamble pays off then we good see this company soaring too.The target for the share is 4k by the next quarter result whether it will sustain and move forward, is dependent on the result it comes out with in the next quarter. TCS will move at its steady pace and will improve their dollar values this time around.The move to buy back its shares is it in offing? Market noise do suggest this but then we need to wait and see it happen to believe it.This would certainly take the value or the price of the share to INFOSY's levels quickly, nevertheless we could see it reaching or crossing 2400 levels soon enough or even 2500 levels before the next quarter results. WIPRO would remain in the consolidation phase, for the time being and the results of the next quarter would see it going higher provided it does meet its own targets.Doing so would not be a big challenge in these markets.We will not see significant up move on the stock till the next quarter results do come out.The stock would maximum touch 700 and come back to settle below 650 levels. HCL TECH, now the rumour of it's imminent sale drives the price up and makes it harder for the potential buyer, a victim of it's own success? This does not necessarily be a reflection on the way the company operates or the profitability it generates. The value of the share would soon come close to what Tech Mahindra is at currently .It will remain the choice of investors for some time to come and it is not showing any sign of getting weak or faltering. Tech Mahindra, is lying dormant and it needs some sort of boost soon enough or it will begin to languish and later deteriorate which will see investors moving out of this counter.There needs to be some sort of awakening and see this company do exceptionally well in the fourth quarter, this would see the share value jump and see it in the 2000 rupees level.Failing which it will drift down to 1500 to 1400 level soon. Have attached a file which does give an outlook too from NASCOMS view point with the larger India picture in focus.
India's foreign exchange reserves surged by $1.46 billion to $293.79 billion in the week ended February 14 on account of increase in the currency assets, data from the Reserve Bank showed.
In the previous reporting week, the reserves had increased by $1.26 billion to $292.33 billion. Foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major part of the overall reserves, rose by $1.414 billion to $267.25 billion in the week under review, the RBI said. FCAs, expressed in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of the non-US currencies such as the euro, pound and yen, held in its reserves. During the week, the gold reserves were unchanged at $20.075 billion. Special Drawing Rights rose by $30.5 million to $4.459 billion, while India's reserve position with the IMF increased by $13.5 million to $2.007 billion, the apex bank noted Corn futures slid the most in three weeks after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said production in 2014 will reach an all-time high and expand a surplus before next year’s harvest. Wheat fell, and soybeans climbed.
Farmers will see corn yields jump 4.1 percent this year, producing a record 13.985 billion bushels, the USDA said today in a report. Domestic inventories on Aug. 31, 2015, will reach 2.111 billion bushels, the highest since 2005 and 43 percent larger than the 1.481 billion projected for a year earlier, the government said. Prices are down 33 percent in the past yea Corn futures for May delivery dropped 0.7 percent to close at $4.59 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest decline for a most-active contract since Jan. 29. While the grain has tumbled from a record $8.49 in August 2012, prices are up 8.8 percent this year amid signs of rising demand. Wheat futures for May delivery slid 1.3 percent to $6.055 a bushel on the CBOT, the first drop since Feb. 12. U.S. inventories will rise to 587 million bushels before the 2015 harvest, compared with 558 million projected for June 1, the government said today. Soybean futures for May delivery advanced 0.9 percent to $13.6025 a bushel in Chicago, capping a 2.7 percent gain for the week. Nickel made a third weekly gain, the longest rally this year, on signs that China, the largest consumer, boosted purchases from Indonesia before last month’s ban on shipments of unprocessed ores.
China’s imports from Indonesia jumped to 6.12 million metric tons in January from 3.99 million tons a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said today in Beijing.Although China has a large stockpile of nickel-containing ore from Indonesia, that stockpile is only going to last until the second half of this year, at which point the actual supply and demand balance is probably going to tighten a lot Prices are going to go up later in the year.. Nickel for delivery in three months settled unchanged at $14,365 a metric ton at 5:50 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, ending the week 0.8 percent higher. Prices are up 3.4 percent this year, after tumbling 19 percent in 2013. China may seek to import more refined and/or ferronickel though possibly not until later when port ore stocks are lower and domestic nickel supply tighter. Copper for delivery in three months was also unchanged at $7,155 a ton ($3.25 a pound) in London. On the Comex in New York, copper futures for delivery in May slipped less than 0.1 percent to $3.26, after dropping as much as 0.5 percent. Lead and tin gained in London. Aluminum and zinc fell. |